Calibration of precipitation forecasts from NWP models for ungauged locations

Abstract

Statistical calibration of raw forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models aims to produce probabilistic forecasts that are as skilful as possible and reliable in ensemble spread. As lead time increases, the underlying skill of the raw forecasts diminishes. Some calibration models are developed based on a joint probability theory, allowing the calibrated forecasts to approach observed climatology when the underlying skill is very low. The observed climatology serves as a baseline accuracy for probabilistic forecasts and needs to be estimated as accurately as possible. However, accurate estimation of climatology requires quality and lengthy data records. There are many locations ..